The Betcast Ledger: Futures Watch, Five NFL Division Calls

The Betcast Ledger: Futures Watch, Five NFL Division Calls

Episode description

Joe recaps Betcast’s September 7 Futures Watch, a frozen snapshot of 10 active selections across NFL and NCAAF. The episode covers five NFL division calls, featured podcast recognition, and how Betcast tracks, validates, and settles source-traced podcast picks.

Report: https://betcastai.com/reports/futures-watch-2026-09-07

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHkjXuc5BoI

Chapters

00:00 Opening

03:32 Seahawks-Patriots kickoff thoughts

12:54 Why Betcast tracks podcast picks

15:16 The Count: extracted futures and validation

19:57 Validation, settlement, and the rankings

23:45 Futures Watch report overview

25:38 Featured podcast honors

29:25 Tampa Bay to win the NFC South

31:30 Cincinnati to win the AFC North

33:09 Denver, Dallas, and Buffalo division calls

37:57 Earlier futures and line movement

41:04 Top-ranked college football calls

44:25 Off-the-beaten-path futures

45:50 Closing thoughts

Download transcript (.vtt)
0:05

Welcome to the bet cast ledger. We're back again for another Episode another week, and most importantly, another report I'm coming to you on a Wednesday night, right after the official start of the NFL football season week. One Game, one in the books, the Seahawks Vs the Patriots.

0:38

And before we get into that, because I got some thoughts and some fun betting Tidbits. About that game and some things that I noticed, but Yes I want to mention ultimately. While we're here, I want to mention This week's report, which is a futures report.

1:06

And it's perfect timing because the season just started and what we can really kind of see is some line movement. And I actually have a future My idea that I'm going to put on the site and I'm going to add a futures page, and I'm going to showcase some of the top futures, and I'm going to show I'm gonna have an actual interactive interactive graph. Where It will show sort of how the line moves Uber a period of time.

1:36

So like, basically a time series of some of the top futures that we're tracking. And again, this is a we're tracking data system, okay, tracking podcast, host pics. We're getting futures, we're getting different sports, getting different markets across as many podcasts, and as many sports As possible?

2:06

And so In that process. We're able to look at futures which is the center of this report. And also still early enough to wear, if you come across this And you lack one of the futures bets.

2:26

Especially before the full slate happened Sunday, you can go out there. And make some of these bets again, I don't guarantee nothing. I just give you the data.

2:38

That's what we want as sports gamblers. We want the data that's what we want, as analysts as making smart decisions. You want as much information that's when you're playing poker.

2:50

It's all about data gathering, who's the rock, who's likely to fold, who's bluffing the most data data data, it's gold, and that's what we're providing you just another Avenue, another alleyway, another exit point to get some more information. So again the future's on the docket. And yeah, tonight I of course, used bad cast to come up with some with some pigs that I liked and Yeah, I had some.

3:32

I had a nice little parlay, going. I didn't hit it. We'll get into that in a second, but I just wanted to just it was nice, it was nice to be able To watch some actual NFL football, the game wasn't super exciting.

3:51

I will say, although it did get Pretty intense toward the end, which is what I like, it doesn't have to be super high-scoring. But. You know, the starting quarterback, Sam goes out.

4:06

And when you had the over, which I put an exp. post out there, you know, I had the over, which I knew was done. It was dead after the first-quarter.

4:16

Especially once Sam got hurt, and and by the way, you couldn't have given me a million dollars to guess that was a hip injury, like I thought it was. I mean, he went down awkwardly. I didn't think it was as hip, which tells me he's probably gonna be out for some weeks.

4:39

I think dac had some had a hip injury. That's why he does all those weird like hip thinkings, that I think gets, I think he created a meme for that. But it was just good to have some football alone, you know, it got me going.

5:00

Got my juices flowing. I was super excited to watch. It's even got me more excited for Sunday.

5:06

I know we still have a game Thursday night Friday night and let me you know, this is not a reaction show, I'm not A I'm not a sports pundit. But I have some thoughts and you know, I usually record on a Wednesday night Thursday so this would probably be the only time. That I'll give like a kind of a live reaction right for the game.

5:34

But, you know, this was not. Necessary, something that's going to happen. All the time, but I want to take advantage of the fact that I just watched some football.

5:46

And I like betting on football, so you know, we talk about sports gabbling around here specifically picks that come from your favorite podcast host. Because they're the experts, not me. Not me, not II am not A A betting expert.

6:08

By any means, I love betting Of trying to becoming it, I love the pursuit A being an expert But I'm not one And I'm here to just report on what I see. I'm here to report on the data that I'm tracking the data that the system that betcast is tracking. And like I say, I bring it to life.

6:36

I bring it to life. I'm bringing new information into the ecosystem. Not new, in the sense that nobody's tracking I'm talking about new in the sense of at the scale that we're doing it.

6:50

And we're looking at the count page here. And a second, but a couple of fun betting tidbits, before some things that, you know that after doing a little bit of research that I thought was pretty interesting and I think notable. To mention, and the first thing is about about Vegas.

7:24

They had it look It was 3 and a 1/2, I think, at most places And so Vegas priced. You know, they had the the pricing in terms of being a field, go game. They were just totally off on the total Just Tell me, what what is it?

7:54

How much? Yeah. 63% of some of the books, some of the sharper books they had, the money on the over.

8:06

Another thing that was pretty interesting was the moneyline, like I didn't you know because like I said me being, I'm not a because II am not an expert gambler. Okay, I still kind of bet with my heart. Sometimes Or I don't bet because I don't like like if I don't like Your team or the team.

8:31

It's really tough. For me to bet because I don't want to even like, I'm just okay not to even make that bet like I don't. Really want the Patriots to win?

8:42

I'm not like a patriots, hater. But there is little part of me that because they win won all the time, it's like Dang. It's it's and the Boston fans, it's just fun when they lose.

8:57

I don't know why it's just more fun when the patriots suck and maybe I just like listen to them complain about how bad their teeth is. Nonetheless, so I didn't want to roof the patriots, so I didn't get the money line, but I understood how The juice on that was nice. And according to my research here.

9:22

72% of all the draftkings money 72% of moneyline money When New England so Sorry about that. Because that's a tough one. I gotta think, is that I put out the research Josh Joby, who I've never heard of they interviewed him after the game seemed like a really nice guy, has a newly him and his partner have looks like they had a daughter, and he's shouting out to her.

9:53

And I actually said, I'm happy for him. He's the reason why the Patriots even got a score, I think he had the past interference on aj Brown, and then he's the reason why they ended the game that's just Vine, destiny, I don't know what you call it. Um, luck of the draw coincidence.

10:16

Have you want to put it? So his toe tap touchdown, that video, I'm sorry not Tota his toe. Touching?

10:28

Interception. Guinea's little feet sees into the field. That video will be playing all over the place when you hear this.

10:44

That video will be all over Twitter. Our ex And Also, kudos to you, if you had the injiga anytime I stupidly, I'm mad at myself. For now, sprinkling, some Supplement on the injiga.

11:07

But I didn't, but if you did. Congrats to you. And Yeah, it was it was good.

11:20

It was good. I Just Like I said, having it on I've been able to pause and come back Looking at the silly commercials But I had to be honest, though it doesn't feel like football is truly back until Sunday. There's just something about the Sunday.

11:48

Where you got all the games going on, you got Scott giving you the goods taking you from game to game. That that's when that's when I really feel like the football seasons here, this was nice. This was like a nice, you know, if you go into a multicor I don't eat at those type of restaurants where you where I get 8 courses.

12:11

But if you're in those situations, this was a nice first course this was a nice Battiser, you know, so we'll tomorrow, but Excitement of Sunday is still yet still yet, but it's coming It's coming. And I'm coming to you with a report Because that's why we're here. But before we get into that Let me take a little A little breather here, just a little woosa, yes, just to kind of You know?

12:54

Promote this a little bit like, hey. If you like what you see if you like what you hear subscribe, I'm not begging. I got, I'm not please subscribe, please.

13:13

Um.

13:14

I mean, I might eventually I'm like. I'm not there yet, okay. But.

13:25

You know, at the end of the day, I kind of you know, when I'm looking at other stuff, other YouTube channels, other things. And typically, when I like something I subscribe, so that's how I feel like if you like, if you like it, you'll subscribe, you don't need me to tell you to subscribe. But I also feel like I have to remind folks.

13:49

Maybe hey, subscribe to me, check me out, follow me on X. Okay, follow me on X check out the reports a betcast, ai.com/reports. Go create you an account.

14:08

Go fill out a car. I'm sorry, generate a card. Check out the system, check out the little boards.

14:16

Podcast, hosts. Hey, if you like what I'm doing over here, shout me out. If you like what we're doing.

14:26

Tell your audience hey There's this system, or there's this podcast Now there's this website application, how do you want to put it? That's tracking our pigs? And hey, we're ranked number three.

14:42

We got these badges. We're doing XY and Z in the NFL. Hey, here's proof.

14:55

There's receipts, so use that shot me out. All right, that's my, that's my little spiral. All right, before we get into the report, let's let's take a little Venture down.

15:16

To the count, so let's see where we are. Let's see where we are. Let's see I mean, zone man here, let's see, let's see where we are, okay.

15:31

Uh, we ooh. Ooh ooh, my, if my young one heard that they'd be like, I heard that voice crackdadi. And I wouldn't, I wouldn't know comment them because I would be embarrassed, but Look, it's Wednesday night.

15:51

It's late. It's after the game I'm due one. I'm do one little voice crack.

16:02

All right, 29000 we're about we're getting close to 30-30k so 29376. Lifetime pigs that we have identified that we have extracted 29376 and counting. Up up up up, I want that number to just grow.

16:33

I mean, in a real grow. The more sports I track, the more pigs it's going to accumulate, and like I said, a million, the day will come. The day will come where I'm doing this right here, just like this.

16:52

And I'm bringing up the count, and I'm saying, oh, we're out a million a million pics extracted whoo. But not yet, we're at 29376. And As you can see But 7497 futures, and if and I've actually updated this page.

17:17

So if you go check it out bet cassay.com/thecount. No did I say the count no bet cast ai.com/count. Okay, you can go here and Let's just see what we're doing, and we got 7497 pics futures, that's 2026%.

17:45

And if you see here, I have it broken down by sport, NFL, 55% of those are NFL picks. And then coming in, next is college football. And then we have some Other sports that we're not tracking at the moment, which is making up a pretty decent amount, nowhere close to NFL and college football, and you can see the full list of all the futures that we have.

18:15

Underneath all that too We Have validated so out of that 20, what 9000 we've validated 13000 pics. And We have got to continue to work on these 8677 picks. And it has a nice little breakdown here again.

18:42

I've recently updated this. I didn't like the first version was, I went to it myself, and I was like, what am I looking at? Like I didn't even understand the numbers that they were being displaced, so I had to redo this revamp, it I actually put data that made sense.

19:01

And I think what makes sense is being transparent about the data tracking Not just another side note is I'm also going to have a page that will track the fixes that we're doing Uber time of Sort of how we're making this number go from 8677 down to 5000 2000 and then, eventually, hopefully just can stay in the one hundreds. And so we want this number to go down, we want this percentage to be very low. And then, of course, we have the settlement, which is well before we get to settlement, I just want to mention why validation is important.

19:57

Because this is where we can generate actual picks, so the validated picks Is what we use for card generation? So whenever you generate a card and you get a buffet of picks Those picks had to be validated if they're not, they can't even get to a betting card. So Also.

20:26

When a pick is validated, it increases the probability that we'll be able to settle that pick as a matter of fact, that's a prerequisite you can't even enter the settlement pipeline. Unless your pick has been validated, so validation is super important. But once the pick is validated, it then has to become settled.

20:50

And the subtle data is what you see on the ranking leader boards. The settled data is what you see on the podcast profile pages, and so we've settled 10743 pics, 50%. Of the picks we've extracted outside of futures, we've settled But again, we got this number here, 11000 that are unsettled, and I have a nice little breakdown of why so if you ever confused or curious Or baffled about What data we're tracking Or the sort of sheer volume, this is a nice, high level like, hey We're tracking these picks these picks have to get validated, once they're validated, they have to get settled once they're settled, then you can start analyzing that data.

21:52

And this is just a nice little breakdown of why. We don't, we're not able to validate every pig, and while we're not able to settle every pig. So Like I said, every we're gonna tune into this.

22:11

Each episode, we want to take a little view into the count. And I think last time we were at 26000 I don't know, but I'm pretty sure next week. We'll be in the 30s, so we'll keep tracking that.

22:29

And We'll keep Keeping you up-to-date. On How we are progressing? And so Again, check that out.

22:50

/the cow. And hopefully, when you get there, you're like, oh man. Like this, this is, oh, look at these look at the leaderboards.

23:00

Look at the right, and you look at this profile, look at this look at this podcast, they're killing it. Or maybe you're like, oh man, I want to generate, I can say for free. You don't have to, you don't have to pay a cent.

23:14

You can have a free account forever and you can generate cards. Of course, there's a limit. I'm only giving me a 10.

23:27

You can do that, go there, generate it. Check it out. And Now to the actual futures Report.

23:45

Yeah We look into the data and again. This is a SnapShot from September 7th, which was Monday. And The headline is For this report.

24:05

Is 5 NFL division? Pigs, a lot of cluster. Ground.

24:19

These division pigs. Now, some of them we've seen before, and we actually showcase Or you'll be able to see that here in the report. And I point that out But.

24:37

This report. As we get into it It features. Or contains picks from 52 different podcasts.

24:53

52 different podcast. And Out of those 52, where we want to recognize for We want to recognize for Specifically, because out of the 52, the highest ranking Podcast, amongst the Amongst the crew so I wanna take a quick moment to recognize wager, talk, sports betting tips. I think they've been here before, but nonetheless Congratulations.

25:38

Wager talks, sports betting tips ranked eighth overall, and they got a nice little badge. They got a totals leader, so they are Basically leading all podcasts and prediction of totals. Pretty sweet.

26:00

Next year we got the sports gambly podcast network. I think they were returning Favored here rank number one in the UFC. Rank, number one in the NCAA Football.

26:13

13th overall, and they got the precious spread. King This is my favorite badge. I love the spread king badge.

26:25

I'm in the process and let me note that to myself. I'm going to come up with these fun little icons or fun little. Art, little artworks for these different badges, so Look, there are words right now total's leader, but next time we show this next time.

26:43

We do a futures report or When you go to their page, they had these unique custom badges that will put here, but The next one is the Ringer wise guys, number 18th overall, ooh, you got the moneyline leader badge. Nice congrats. Again, a little special shout out to Ringer, wise guys, because I actually listened To this particular pot, I love this pot, I love sal, I love those guys, I love the Ringer.

27:20

So hey, it's, it's nice to see you Tribute in Tibet, cast indirectly. Then, we got the early edge, a daily sports betting, podcast, prop leader, they got the prop leader bag number, sorry, prop leader badge. Number one in the NBA At number 34 were all so those are the 4.

27:52

Featured podcasts amongst The Total of 52. That contributed to these pigs in some way. And so before we get into it, we got a little, what's changed.

28:14

So 2 of these picks Or featured. On the August 10th, futures report And so Again, that's where I'm super excited about a future edition. A creation, I'm going to add to the application that's going to track these futures over time, in a nice little graph, not necessarily the futures that show up on a report, they may they may connect to an actual report.

28:54

But I'm going to come up with some formula, some sort of algorithm of which futures that we're going to showcase on the futures page. And then I want to show you Uber time, how the line moves. And you can have a nice little time series, as I said earlier, all the way up until That bet settles.

29:16

But. Just to kind of Give a little peek into that and what that can look like. Here's an example.

29:25

So We have the taper Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC south, so 23 shows are backing this 23 podcast. Or Supporting this particular pig, so Right now? It's at + 175.

29:56

And the one thing that is of major interest and right now it looks like Oh, yeah, that addition didn't have the The initial lie. But What you can see is that the podcast support grew from 7 to 23, so back in August, 10th. There was only 7 shows.

30:23

That supported this particular pig. Now there's 23, so that's An increase of 16 shows, so This is one that I really liked. It's got if you see there 3 of the future featured podcasts, 4 So all the top sort of podcasts that we recognize are supporting this particular bet.

30:50

I like this bet a lot. I actually sprinkled some on this. This is my one of my personal Favorites, because I just think the south is pretty bad.

31:06

And there's no reason why they should have lost it last year, they just kind of Just poop the bed a little bit toward the end of the season, but I think the divisions got worse in temper pays gotten better. So I do think that's a pretty Pretty good pick there, but again. Hey We're not here to guarantee nothing.

31:30

I'm just giving you the data and again, that's 20one6, more podcasts are hopping on that one. Next up at number two, we got the Cincinnati Bengals. To win the AFC north, now being a huge raven supporter, I hate this pig.

31:52

But it just keeps coming up. Again, this grew 14, so 7 podcasts supported this before in August 10th. Now, 21.

32:04

Also. Funny enough. It looks like the line has, it looks like there's actually more juice on this.

32:18

Are there was more juice on this back? In the August 10th edition, so that's this is actually a prime example. Of what I want to showcase in terms of an August 10th, you could have got this at + 194.

32:34

Now it's already at + 160. So the market in just the span of what a couple of weeks. Has moved.

32:45

What is that 34 points? I mean, that's a big jump. The market moves, and I can't wait.

32:54

That's going to be my top priority, getting that page up. That shows this movement Uber time. There you go.

33:09

Number three The Denver Broncos to win the AFC West. Right now, that's at when this report was taken. That was, you can get that at + 195.

33:24

20 shows are backing this You know? People think the Kansas City Chiefs are down. Nobody thinks the Raiders are going to do anything.

33:39

And What's the other team over there? Um. Yeah, ow and the Broncos are you know?

33:54

Probably have the best defense I probably have a lot of confidence. Consider that they should have been in the Super Bowl last year. Shame on them, Shah.

34:06

I just gotta mention this like I've been like champagne. I mean, he has one Super Bowl. He's got his one Super Bowl, but man.

34:14

He has to have some of the worst.

34:18

Look.

34:20

As a coach. An NFL. History.

34:32

Time after time after time, he just catches some of the worst breaks. He's almost like the Lamar Jackson of coaching. My boy Lamar, as much as I love Em like I mean I love you dog truly like you're one of the few people, if I see out in the streets, I'm going to run up like a little kid in a candy shop and ask for a picture Lama, let me get a picture of homey.

34:57

One of the few But you also have some of the worst luck in terms of coming up in the big moments. I'm still room for you, though I still I'm still holding out hope maybe this is the year maybe this is the year LJ. But but shad.

35:22

Like, I think one that comes to mind is that play the Minnesota Vikings play Where they basically had the game one, and I think they threw, like some sort of out route, you took off for a touchdown, and last, it's just crazy stuff like an onside kick. That was getting that, gotta get just unlucky stuff, but Look, they're probably they'll probably win the West, and it's not a bad ticket number four. This is when I like I like this Dallas Cowboys pic.

35:57

It's kind of come out of nowhere. Most people think that Eagles are gonna win. Most people think the westkins are.

36:06

I'm sorry I should not call them that the commanders. Manders. Most people think they're going to be the worst But there's been a lot of buzz for the Dallas Cowboys, 19 shows back in this call, get them at + 175, Dallas Cowboys are when the NFC's I love that pig, I love that pig.

36:38

And they come in at number five, we got the Buffalo Bills. To win the AFC East easy pig. Easy pick.

36:51

Can't get no juice on that -135. 16 shows back in this car Buffalo Bills so that rounds out our top 5 consensus division picks We got the Bucks to win the south. We got the Bengals to win the north Excuse me.

37:21

We got the Broncos to win the West, the Cowboys to win the East and the Buffalo Bills. To win the AFC, East So Less, less, let's keep an eye on those Because I'd be fascinated to see. I'm always Extremely fascinated by these long features, and how they changed, like, for example, little tidbit, we'll actually go back in quickly.

37:57

Let's go back and look at 1 of the older people I think it was the first futures report. I think maybe it was at this one. I see here.

38:09

Yes, no, ah, not this one. Not this one. It was the ah yes, the futures the very first one I did July 20th of course you can go check this out on betcast, ai.com/reports.

38:27

You can see the whole list of them But fun, little fat. I really liked this Jacob Rodriguez, pick here. Jacob Rodriguez to win defensive rookie other year.

38:45

And I Little sprinkle on that. And at the time At the time it was + 2000 If I'm not mistaken, and I'm double-checking right now at the time. Yes, I gotta that + 2000.

39:14

Take a guess at what it's at now. And funny enough, it just Went further down. I think I checked a few days ago.

39:26

It was at + 1500 now it's at + 1400, according to fanduel, not a sponsor. So look. In a what a month And a 1/2.

39:45

It's gone from + 2000 to + 14. So now You know, somebody gets that ticket right now. We got the same You know, we got the same result, Jacob Rodriguez.

39:58

But I'm getting that + 2000 so it's key, it's important. To get on a futures pig or I'm not saying nothing that's groundbreaking, but I'm just reiterating. The line, the market, it moves And That's a fun ticket to have right there.

40:25

And it's going to be even more fun when he becomes a low All right, when he becomes a lock and no doubter that he's gonna win. The nope, the The only way you want to make that, but if you parlay that with something else, to make the juice, right? But back to the back to this week's report, so we got the top 5 consensus picks with all those pods, 20 plus pods, 17 and most of them, you got 20 plus pods back in them.

41:04

But now we get to my to the top-ranked riders section, so we got a little bit of college football action here. And again, this section is Basically. Not a lot of podcast consensus like you're not getting 15 2017 18.

41:26

Whatever shows backing it, but we at least gotta have one. Top rank pod. So even if you got 7 or 8 podcasts saying, hey, this is a great pick.

41:40

If you aint got a top-ranked podcast in there. You're not gonna make this top-ranked writer section. So For that we got Texas am over 8 and a 1/2 regular season wins.

41:53

You can get that at + 120. That's supported by 3 shows, and specifically the sports gambling podcast network as a feature show. Next, we got Funny enough.

42:14

So we got Texas at M over 8 and a 1/2, but also we got Em to Miss the college football playoff.

42:22

Walk walk.

42:24

Get him on the over. Take them to not make the playoffs, that's actually -230. And Third one we got here is Oregon to win the big 10 ooh I like the juice on that + 300.

42:45

I'm at to go Well, maybe I might go actually sprinkle someone on that right quick. 10 shows backing this call. Surprisingly.

42:59

Got one featured, pod. I bet that you know I got, I've got to, I've got to see what the odds are on that right now, so Monday it was at + 300. Let's see Oregon to Let's see Oregon to win the big 10.

43:28

Oregon to win the big Tennessee. What is it now? Let's see.

43:58

Let's see, I'm trying to get, I'm trying to find I got to know I've got to know Yes, so right now. Ooh, is that + 2 folded? Plus 240.

44:18

So There you go. It's going down. It's going down.

44:25

And then to sort of Round out the report here. Always give you 22 that are I like to call off the beam path and I took that phrase from when I used to research when I take trips and when I was looking at articles, there'll always be this sort of off-the-beaten-path article that would sort of take you, you know if you want. To experience something different than the normal turacy, something you can take one of the off-the-beaten-path route.

44:57

So this is what this section is about. And we got 2 We got Iowa over 7 and a 1/2 regular season wins. One show back in that get that at -175 and then East Carolina under 7 and a 1/2 regular season wins again just one show and this is a little time to give give a show some love that maybe doesn't have a lot like, you know, the big 10 huddle podcast.

45:29

You made the report. The next round podcast, you made the report. And Congratulations to you, shouts out to those And That concludes the report.

45:50

That concludes our futures roundup. Again, we're putting a pin the beginning of the season, and we're gonna come back to those, we're gonna come back to those and see Seep is still a live ticket. Seep is still a live card.

46:09

See how the blind The juice has moved. So I want to thank y'all for sticking around Truly. Appreciate it, email me With any questions, I should have said the email in the beginning Casey, in case you didn't make it this far, but I'm getting, I'm getting better at that, because that email me, Joe at betcast, AI.

46:37

dot com. Tell me what I'm doing good. Tell me what I'm doing bad.

46:41

Tell me that you love me. Support me subscribe, if you like, what we're doing over here. If you like, sports gamin, data If you like sports gambling, if you like podcasting.

46:57

If you just like what the heck I'm talking about. Hello, let me know subscribe. But.

47:07

It's been fun. Open a close up shop We'll see you again. Next week with another report, I don't know what is gonna be, but that's the fun part.

47:18

I never know until I look into the data. But as always.